Scenarios in FHI Baseline vs Scenarios

Implementing an FHI assessment in a basin can be considered under two modalities. Both of which are crucial for refining and improving decision making in a basin.

The first of these is the assessment of current conditions in basin with available data. Termed as the Baseline assessment, this is the benchmark against with future and past conditions can be compared. With some of the EV indicators being able to use historical records, we start to see the possibility of long-term trends to be derived. As ES and GS indicators become part of the basins management discussion, a subset of these or the FHI framework itself may find use in long-term monitoring of the basin. With this in mind, It is recommended that assessments are updated every five years unless rapid change occurs, in which case the assessment should be conducted in response to the change.

The second modality, Scenario assessment is in response to requirements to communicate and plan in view of future changes in a basin. It is based on forecasting future state of some of the indicators, caused by known anthropogenic or climatic forcings in the basin. Consequently, scenario analysis can be undertaken at any time during an after an FHI assessment and will be prompted by the need for input into decision making. The following sections outline some approaches that may be helpful to consider when developing scenarios for a freshwater basin with FHI.