Scenarios in FHI Main Driving Forces Land-use Change

Land-use change includes the conversion of land from one state to another for human use (e.g., natural areas to croplands) or, less frequently, as restoration to a more natural condition. Land-use change remains the most serious threat to biodiversity, and it undermines the capacity of ecosystems to supply fresh water (Foley et al. 2005). This category may also include other diffuse changes in the basin's land surface (like population changes, etc.). Several indicators in the Ecosystem Vitality and Ecosystem Services components could change with land-use change, most notably and directly drainage-basin condition under Ecosystem Vitality. Depending on the type of land-use change, other indicators may be affected as well. For instance, if natural land is converted to cropland, ancillary Ecosystem Vitality effects are likely, such as declines in biodiversity due to reduction in habitat, declines in water quality from fertilizer use and surface run-off, and greater deviations from the natural flow regime or changes in groundwater storage due to increased irrigation pressure. The Ecosystem Services indicators may also be affected with some declines and some increases in indicator value. Using natural-to-cropland land-use change as an example, greater stress on the water supply will likely occur (resulting in a decrease in the average annual water stress indicator value) but total amount of biomass for consumption will increase. Regulation and support indicators may also decline, such as water quality metrics and changes in sedimentation and nutrient retention. If the natural lands served as recreational areas, the cultural/aesthetic indicator may also decline or increase depending on the recreational use (e.g., bird watching opportunities may increase in certain types of croplands).